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_|UK panel: ?Inevitable pandemic? will kill 75,000 in Britain|_
(1a) ?Inevitable pandemic? will kill 75,000 in Britain
Steve Bird
It is ?inevitable? that a pandemic will hit Britain, killing up to 75,000 people, according to a parliamentary committee.
In a report published today the House of Lords Intergovernmental Organisations Committee says that new infectious disease are emerging and being given the opportunity to spread because of changes in ways of life.
The committee called for urgent improvements to international surveillance so that action can be taken against outbreaks of infectious disease before they develop into pandemics.
The authors quoted the Government?s own view that international activity in disease control is ?poorly coordinated?, with too many organisations operating alongside one another, often duplicating their efforts and sometimes imposing ?unacceptable management burdens? on the developing countries where many of the diseases emerge.
Describing the World Health Organisation as dysfunctional, the committee said that it should be taking on a leadership role in improving the detection and response effort to such an outbreak.
They emphasised that the UN agency needs to be ?better organised and resourced? to be effective in tackling such a problem.
The committee heard evidence that while there had not been a pandemic since 1968, another one was inevitable.
?Estimates are that the next pandemic will kill between two million and 50 million people worldwide and between 50,000 and 75,000 in the UK. Socio-economic disruption will be massive.?
The committee also raised concerns that arrangements for detecting new diseases among animals were ?less comprehensive? than those for human illnesses, even though most newly emerging human infections come from animals.
Very often, new illnesses are only identified after they have jumped the species barrier to infect humans, the report noted.
The peers called for the Government to consider urgently how it funds aid projects in developing countries so the funds can also help Britain?s defences against a pandemic.
While the last two pandemics in the 1950s and 1960s were triggered by mild strains of influenza, future ones could be far more serious, particularly if linked to the H5N1 strain of bird flu a type that has aleady jumped species from birds to humans.
Lord Soley, the committee chairman, said: ?The last 100 years have seen great advances in public health and disease control but globalisation and changes in lifestyles are giving rise to new infections and providing opportunities for them to spread rapidly throughout the world.
?We have been impressed by the increased international resources and commitment being devoted to controlling infectious diseases, and we hope this will continue and grow. However, for that to be effective it is vital that there is sufficient surveillance of disease outbreaks to limit their spread.
?Three quarters of new human infectious diseases start in animals. We urgently need better surveillance systems to deal with this problem.
?We also felt there should be more focus on improving health services in the developing world as without improved facilities it will be far more difficult for current treatment campaigns to take root and for serious disease outbreaks to be identified and dealt with.?
We all fall down
The pandemics last century were caused by a humanised strain of flu
The Spanish flu of 1918-19 was caused by an H1N1 virus and killed up to 40 million people Asian flu, 1957-58, was from an H2N2 strain; up to four million died
The 1968-69 Hong Kong flu was caused by an H3N2 strain. It killed one million people
Source: Times database
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(1b) Disease pandemic 'inevitable' in Britain warns House of Lords
By Andrew Porter, Political Editor
Last Updated: 8:30AM BST 21/07/2008
Up to 75,000 people in Britain will die as influenza or a similar disease sweeps across the world in an "inevitable" pandemic, according to a powerful Lords Committee.
Changes in lifestyle are leading to new infections and providing them with opportunities to spread rapidly, the report warns.
An outbreak in Britain will cause "massive" disruption, it concludes. More should be done to provide early warnings.
The Lords intergovernmental organisations committee says the "dysfunctional" World Health Organisation needs to be better organised to cope with the threat. The peers describe the Government's evidence to it as "sobering".
They were told by ministers: "While there has not been a pandemic since 1968, another one is inevitable.
"Estimates are that the next pandemic will kill between two million and 50 million people worldwide and between 50,000 and 75,000 in the UK. Socio-economic disruption will be massive."
The committee says that with three quarters of newly emerging human infections originating from animals, more stringent ways of detecting diseases are needed.
Lord Soley, the chairman of the committee, said: "The last 100 years have seen great advances in public health and disease control through the world, but globalisation and changes in lifestyles are giving rise to new infections and providing opportunities for them to spread rapidly.
"We are particularly concerned about the link with animal health."
Peers are calling for new international disease surveillance systems in developing countries, so the West is alerted to the threat.
The Government should consider "urgently" how it funds aid projects with developing countries so the money is spent most effectively to help "Britain's own defences" against pandemics.
The last two pandemics ? in 1958 and 1968 ? were caused by relatively mild strains of influenza. But the report warns that the next one could have more serious consequences, especially if it comes from the H5N1 variety, which is found in birds and poultry, and which has already jumped the species barrier to infect some humans.
The report says that bird flu "at some point in the near future" could become capable of "human to human transmission".
Spending on international health resources should be re-examined.
The report says reform of the World Health Organisation's internal structure is "essential". It found that its organisational structure was "dysfunctional".
Last year bird flu H5N1 strains were found in Britain. Defra officials culled 159,000 turkeys at a Bernard Matthews farm in Suffolk where the disease was confirmed.
Fearing a pandemic outbreak, the Department of Health has stockpiled enough Tamiflu, an antiviral drug, to cover a quarter of the population.
However, mass immunisation against H5N1 has been ruled out.
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Steve Bird
It is ?inevitable? that a pandemic will hit Britain, killing up to 75,000 people, according to a parliamentary committee.
In a report published today the House of Lords Intergovernmental Organisations Committee says that new infectious disease are emerging and being given the opportunity to spread because of changes in ways of life.
The committee called for urgent improvements to international surveillance so that action can be taken against outbreaks of infectious disease before they develop into pandemics.
The authors quoted the Government?s own view that international activity in disease control is ?poorly coordinated?, with too many organisations operating alongside one another, often duplicating their efforts and sometimes imposing ?unacceptable management burdens? on the developing countries where many of the diseases emerge.
Describing the World Health Organisation as dysfunctional, the committee said that it should be taking on a leadership role in improving the detection and response effort to such an outbreak.
They emphasised that the UN agency needs to be ?better organised and resourced? to be effective in tackling such a problem.
The committee heard evidence that while there had not been a pandemic since 1968, another one was inevitable.
?Estimates are that the next pandemic will kill between two million and 50 million people worldwide and between 50,000 and 75,000 in the UK. Socio-economic disruption will be massive.?
The committee also raised concerns that arrangements for detecting new diseases among animals were ?less comprehensive? than those for human illnesses, even though most newly emerging human infections come from animals.
Very often, new illnesses are only identified after they have jumped the species barrier to infect humans, the report noted.
The peers called for the Government to consider urgently how it funds aid projects in developing countries so the funds can also help Britain?s defences against a pandemic.
While the last two pandemics in the 1950s and 1960s were triggered by mild strains of influenza, future ones could be far more serious, particularly if linked to the H5N1 strain of bird flu a type that has aleady jumped species from birds to humans.
Lord Soley, the committee chairman, said: ?The last 100 years have seen great advances in public health and disease control but globalisation and changes in lifestyles are giving rise to new infections and providing opportunities for them to spread rapidly throughout the world.
?We have been impressed by the increased international resources and commitment being devoted to controlling infectious diseases, and we hope this will continue and grow. However, for that to be effective it is vital that there is sufficient surveillance of disease outbreaks to limit their spread.
?Three quarters of new human infectious diseases start in animals. We urgently need better surveillance systems to deal with this problem.
?We also felt there should be more focus on improving health services in the developing world as without improved facilities it will be far more difficult for current treatment campaigns to take root and for serious disease outbreaks to be identified and dealt with.?
We all fall down
The pandemics last century were caused by a humanised strain of flu
The Spanish flu of 1918-19 was caused by an H1N1 virus and killed up to 40 million people Asian flu, 1957-58, was from an H2N2 strain; up to four million died
The 1968-69 Hong Kong flu was caused by an H3N2 strain. It killed one million people
Source: Times database
-
-------
-
(1b) Disease pandemic 'inevitable' in Britain warns House of Lords
By Andrew Porter, Political Editor
Last Updated: 8:30AM BST 21/07/2008
Up to 75,000 people in Britain will die as influenza or a similar disease sweeps across the world in an "inevitable" pandemic, according to a powerful Lords Committee.
Changes in lifestyle are leading to new infections and providing them with opportunities to spread rapidly, the report warns.
An outbreak in Britain will cause "massive" disruption, it concludes. More should be done to provide early warnings.
The Lords intergovernmental organisations committee says the "dysfunctional" World Health Organisation needs to be better organised to cope with the threat. The peers describe the Government's evidence to it as "sobering".
They were told by ministers: "While there has not been a pandemic since 1968, another one is inevitable.
"Estimates are that the next pandemic will kill between two million and 50 million people worldwide and between 50,000 and 75,000 in the UK. Socio-economic disruption will be massive."
The committee says that with three quarters of newly emerging human infections originating from animals, more stringent ways of detecting diseases are needed.
Lord Soley, the chairman of the committee, said: "The last 100 years have seen great advances in public health and disease control through the world, but globalisation and changes in lifestyles are giving rise to new infections and providing opportunities for them to spread rapidly.
"We are particularly concerned about the link with animal health."
Peers are calling for new international disease surveillance systems in developing countries, so the West is alerted to the threat.
The Government should consider "urgently" how it funds aid projects with developing countries so the money is spent most effectively to help "Britain's own defences" against pandemics.
The last two pandemics ? in 1958 and 1968 ? were caused by relatively mild strains of influenza. But the report warns that the next one could have more serious consequences, especially if it comes from the H5N1 variety, which is found in birds and poultry, and which has already jumped the species barrier to infect some humans.
The report says that bird flu "at some point in the near future" could become capable of "human to human transmission".
Spending on international health resources should be re-examined.
The report says reform of the World Health Organisation's internal structure is "essential". It found that its organisational structure was "dysfunctional".
Last year bird flu H5N1 strains were found in Britain. Defra officials culled 159,000 turkeys at a Bernard Matthews farm in Suffolk where the disease was confirmed.
Fearing a pandemic outbreak, the Department of Health has stockpiled enough Tamiflu, an antiviral drug, to cover a quarter of the population.
However, mass immunisation against H5N1 has been ruled out.
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